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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.